Predicting 2008
by Donald Devine
Issue 98 - December 26, 2007

Surprised that former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee now leads the Iowa polls?

It was forecast here last year (http://acuf.org/issues/issue73/061210news.asp).

The bad news for conservatives is that it was also predicted that Baptist minister Huckabee could not thereafter win more libertarian New Hampshire, that a loss in Iowa by front-running former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney would shatter his equally large early lead in the Granite State, and that these developments would open up the possibility of a Rudy Giuliani Republican nomination.

The former New York Mayor has been wisely minimizing his chances for victory in the early contests beginning on January 3, 2008, claiming he does not have to win until the seventh contest in Florida on January 29, where he is running well. Although Giuliani does not poll strongly in either of the two first contests, he has remained in third place in Iowa and sometimes second in New Hampshire. If Romney fares badly in Iowa, he could lose his neighboring-state advantage in a nanosecond. Nearly three-fourths of Romney supporters in New Hampshire already say they could change their mind and vote for someone else. Giuliani still remains the most likely candidate to fill his shoes there.

Then it really gets interesting. Once Giuliani becomes the frontrunner, both social and economic conservative leaders could switch to the most viable remaining candidate in an effort to stop the pro-abortion, pro-gay preferences, anti-gun, pro-waterboarding, pro-campaign-finance, and tax-increasing Mayor. If Romney hangs on to a reasonably-strong second in New Hampshire, it might be him. Fred Thompson would do well if he broke out of the pack in Iowa. Ron Paul is less likely but he will exceed expectations. It could even be John McCain, for all of his troubles with the conservative establishment, if his recent endorsement by the influential Manchester Union Leader results in a strong second or even a third place compared to the others.

Michigan comes next and might lift Romney, whose father was a long-time former governor. Conversely, this advantage might lead potential king-makers and media to discount the state. South Carolina looms very large just four days later. This first southern state contest is the last opportunity to displace Giuliani before Florida and Super-Duper Tuesday close the door. It would take a massive and determined movement by a sizeable group of conservative leaders to affect the outcome but it might just happen and could block Giuliani.

Real Clear Politics’ average poll numbers in South Carolina show a virtual four-way tie between Huckabee, Romney, Thompson and Giuliani, with McCain just a few points back. Whoever among these four looks the most competitive against Giuliani must be the social conservative choice, and probably of the economic conservatives too. Romney would be an easy pick for he will have the needed funding for the onslaught following but if he is too wounded by then money will not matter. If it is someone else, the choice must be made immediately after New Hampshire or it will be too late.

Even assuming conservatives could unite on a candidate and could deliver for him, Giuliani could easily have half of the delegates needed for victory after Super-Duper-day, February 5. But if he does not do much better than that, he can still be defeated because he will have already won his most likely delegates. The advantage, although only a slight one, shifts to the conservative alternative, if there is one.

If Giuliani is the nominee, he will almost certainly lose the general election. His campaign has been marvelously effective in making the case that he is the only one who can defeat Hillary Clinton. It can do so only by confusing popular votes with Electoral College votes. Giuliani will run better on the two coasts with their large populations but, although he will run closer to her in most of them above the Mason-Dixon Line, he will still lose those states to Mrs. Clinton. As the 2000 election proved, Electoral votes count and Giuliani will lose more of them in the South and Midwest than any other potential GOP nominee.

No party has won a national election whose preceding president had as low ratings as George W. Bush has at the beginning of the campaign year. In addition, Republicans have twice as many seats at risk in the Senate and have a large number of retirees in the House, so control of Congress is just about out of the question. Likewise, any Republican should lose to any Democrat in the presidential election. But Sen. Clinton is not “any Democrat” and her high unpopularity among the general public gives the GOP a chance to win--but only a chance--if Giuliani is not its nominee. If he is, too many conservatives will just stay home.

Reading the tea leaves, there is only one path to a possible Republican presidential victory in 2008. It requires an early post-New Hampshire conservative consensus on a non-Giuliani nominee, a (more likely) Democratic nomination of Hillary Clinton, and a general election about the Clintons rather than about the Bushes. It is a long shot but it is not impossible. Otherwise, it is all three--President Hillary, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid--and Katy bar the door.

Donald Devine, the editor of Conservative Battleline Online, was the director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management from 1981 to 1985 and is the director of the Federalist Leadership Center at Bellevue University.